Abstract
This paper assesses green hydrogen export opportunities for African countries. Governments in many European countries have high hopes in cheap green hydrogen (H2) from Africa to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. This study leverages GeoH2, a geospatial levelized cost of hydrogen model, to evaluate the economic feasibility of exporting green H2 from Africa to Europe under four realistic financing scenarios. Our findings suggest that without European policy interventions, the median costs for African green H2 exports are prohibitive, ranging from €10.4/kgH2 to €12.2/kgH2, 2-3 times above projected European costs. De-risking can lower median costs to €6.7/kgH2 in a low interest rate environment, with least cost locations at €3.6/kgH2 in Mauritania. In the current interest rate environment, we identify locations in ten African countries that may be competitive, yet many of these are prone to conflict or instability casting doubt on long-term investments. To reduce cost further, lowering the cost of finance and the cost of wind energy is critical, rather than shipping costs. Overall, de-risking and strategic location selection are key to make African green H2 exports competitive on the global stage.
