Abstract
Renewable energy development and export creates an opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to foster green economic growth while supporting global decarbonisation. However, without careful assessment of risks, a renewable energy boom could create a resource curse which paradoxically slows growth and development. Here, the likelihood of a resource curse driven by renewable energy development in Morocco is evaluated. Specifically, 14 potential negative impacts of the resource curse (i.e. “symptoms”) relevant to renewable energy are studied. Through surveys with 21 Moroccan energy experts, the highest-risk (i.e. most likely and highest-impact) symptoms are found to be: (1) increased economic dependence on other countries and international organisations, (2) increased dependence on other countries for technology and expertise, and (3) damage to local flora, fauna, and landscape. The risks associated with these symptoms, while serious, are preventable via policy strengthening or intervention. Through 10 follow-up semi-structured interviews and subsequent complex systems analysis, the following policy interventions are identified to mitigate resource curse risks: careful negotiation of robust co-funding arrangements to safeguard Moroccan autonomy; the development of local renewable energy innovation capability, including technology manufacturing and test-bedding; and continuation and enhancement of environmental protection mandates.
