Abstract
This study employs the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), selected for its capacity to facilitate Climate-Land-Energy-Water System (CLEWs) interactions. The analysis first explores a Baseline for Colombia, followed by two further scenarios. The Baseline assumes continuity along the current trajectory; the second scenario, follows the actual policy intention of “Just Energy Transition” with 6GW of new renewables by 2026; and the third scenario, includes 100% of electric demand covers by renewables. The findings underscore a significant challenge: achieving 100% renewable energy electrification necessitates substantial land-use changes, potentially instigating social conflicts over land access. To address this, the report recommends prioritizing distributed generation, implementing robust energy efficiency policies, and fostering citizen involvement through energy communities. Additionally, the analysis suggests that current policy intention alone may not yield a sustained reduction in CO2eq emissions unless accompanied by a shift in the country's approach to new renewable energy investments. The report concludes the significance of the CLEWs nexus in analysing technical data for a sustainable energy transition and integration into policy and decision-making processes. In summary, this study not only provides critical insights into the challenges and opportunities presented by different energy transition pathways but also underscores the importance of strategic policy decisions, community engagement, and the adoption of advanced modelling frameworks in steering Colombia towards a sustainable and resilient energy future.
